转载DQnews

Bay Area home sales near bottom again, median price plunges

September 18, 2008

La Jolla, CA.----The pace of Bay Area home sales reversed its July uptick and
dropped again last month, marking a return to the long-running waiting game that
many potential buyers and sellers have been playing for more than a year. Parts of
the East Bay are bucking the trend with active bottom-feeding in foreclosure-
stressed neighborhoods, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 7,232 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county Bay
Area in August. That was down 4.7 percent from 7,586 in July, and down 0.9 percent
from 7,299 in August 2007, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Last month\'s sales total was the second-lowest for an August, behind 6,688 sales in
August 1992, in MDA DataQuick\'s statistics, which go back to 1988. An \"average\"
August had 10,031 sales, while the peak August in 2004 had 13,940.

\"Mortgage money for homes above the half-million-dollar mark is hard to come by
right now, even for well-qualified buyers. Because homes are more expensive in the
Bay Area than elsewhere, this issue will have a bigger impact on home sales there.
Mortgage availability will eventually loosen up, we just don\'t know when, especially
after the past few days,\" said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

The use of so-called jumbo mortgages, until recently defined as over $417,000, has
plummeted since the credit crunch hit in August 2007, making jumbo loans more
expensive and harder to obtain. Last month mortgages over $417,000 made up 32.3
percent of all home purchase loans, down from 58.6 percent in August 2007.

August home sales jumped in Contra Costa and Solano counties as bargain hunters
scooped up distressed properties at prices not seen in more than five years. Across
the Bay Area, foreclosure resales made up 36.1 percent of all resales last month, up
from 33.3 percent in July and 4.4 percent a year ago. The figure represents the
percentage of homes resold in August that had been foreclosed on at some point in
the prior 12 months.

At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 8.6 percent of resales in San
Francisco to 61.3 percent in Solano County. In the Bay Area\'s other seven counties,
August foreclosure resales were as follows: Contra Costa, 54.4 percent; Marin, 13.5
percent; Napa, 39 percent; Santa Clara, 24.7 percent; San Mateo, 16.6 percent;
Sonoma, 41.6 percent.

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area
last month was $447,000, down 4.9 percent from $470,000 in July and down a record
31.8 percent from $655,000 in August 2007, according to MDA DataQuick.

Last month\'s median stood at the lowest point since January 2004, when it was
$440,000. The median peaked at $665,000 in June, July and August of 2007.

MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-
based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate
activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions,
public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to
paying was $2,121 last month, down from $2,218 the previous month, and down from
$3,171 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 18.5 percent below
typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle.
They are 38.7 percent below the current cycle\'s peak in June 2006.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions.

Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages
is near the all-time low, as is financing with multiple mortgages.

Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, non-owner occupied buying activity
appears flat but might be emerging, MDA DataQuick reported.



Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Aug-07 Aug-08 %Chng Aug-07 Aug-08 %Chng
Alameda 1,501 1,271 -15.30% $619,000 $440,000 -28.90%
Contra Costa 1,279 1,733 35.50% $570,000 $330,000 -42.10%
Marin 264 247 -6.40% $899,500 $675,000 -25.00%
Napa 103 124 20.40% $597,500 $453,500 -24.10%
Santa Clara 1,908 1,648 -13.60% $700,000 $555,500 -20.60%
San Francisco 577 529 -8.30% $822,000 $725,000 -11.80%
San Mateo 731 560 -23.40% $788,000 $632,000 -19.80%
Solano 418 598 43.10% $420,000 $270,000 -35.70%
Sonoma 518 522 0.80% $505,000 $350,000 -30.70%
Bay Area 7,299 7,232 -0.90% $655,000 $447,000 -31.80%

发信人: goldenrain (金雨), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 闲着没事儿，扔几块砖。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 10 02:11:07 2008)

１。银行和建筑商没有到底，这一点是可以肯定地。
它们的底要等到该倒闭的银行都倒闭的时候。

２。大宗商品的价格不是散户哄抬的，大基金，对冲基金，主权基金，金融机构，他们
才是主力。短暂的反弹扭转不了大宗商品下降的大趋势。

３。美元会持续走强。美元的强弱并不是国家经济情况决定的，主要是发行的美元和消
耗的美元的比例关系，房价持续下跌，股价持续下跌，多少美元都灰飞烟灭了，消耗的
太多，美元自然持续走强。

４。这一次的衰退将是世界性的，金砖四国，一个都跑不掉，不会比美国好。美国瘦死
的骆驼比马大，加上比较完善的社会安全机制和强大的军事实力，仍然是资金的避风港。



【 在 babycrynot (Baby, cry? NOT!) 的大作中提到: 】
: 最近美国股市比较动荡， 对此我个人有一些看法，和大家分享一下：
最近美国股市比较动荡， 对此我个人有一些看法，和大家分享一下：

1. 关于两房的收归国家问题，我觉得阿宝的做法是对的，但是可能有点晚了。 这
个政策远远不足以让房市见底，只是避免了两个房贷公司的倒闭让事情变得更不可收拾
而已。 真正的底我们不可能现在就预测的出来，什么明年下半年后年上半年纯属胡说
八道。 银行和建商的股价就目前来说还是偏高的，一个未来渺茫并且赔钱的股票你说
应该值多少钱？

2. 关于原材料的回落， 我认为最近的市场是处在一个回调过度的状态。 也许是因
为先前有太多小型 闲散资金参与炒作，稍有风吹草动大家一起扯呼，造成了这么一个
恐慌的局面。 其实长久来看，现在是一个很好的买入的时候；

3. 关于美元的强弱， 美元现在已经不单单是美元了，美元现在就是人民币，人民
币就是美元，如果谁还搞不清楚这个问题，我觉得对于国际货币的认识还需要再加强。
美元的强是表，人民币的强是本，如果现在让人民币和美元的汇率脱钩的话，你想想
会有什么事情发生。 长期来看，美元不可能强到哪里去，因为一个过度消费和负债累
累的国家是不可能有一个强势的货币的。 最近两房的收购居然能让美元上升从经济规
律上来说是讲不通的，必然不能持久；

4. 关于美国股市是否是全世界闲散资金的最佳避风港，我的答案也是否定的。
BRIC的GDP比美国不知道强到哪里去了，为什么要放在一个经济负增长的市场里面？


5. 关于股市的走向。大家都知道我是熊派， 我只想说美国股市里的钱越来越少了
，如果没有一个“底”，投资人轻易不会把钱再送进去。大家可以算算道琼斯三十只股
票的总盈余是多少，P/E是多少，不管是以前的还是将来的，就应该得出答案：离1万点
不远了。

发信人: goldenrain (金雨), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 这一次比上世纪大萧条还要糟糕，BSC/LEH/MER/AIG。。。。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 11 21:38:38 2008)

到目前为止，还不能和大萧条比，
大萧条
两个月 DJI 380->200 等于我们 14000-》7368
三年： 380-》41 等于我们 14000-》 1511.


【 在 huqisuixiang (qihuu) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这一次比上世纪大萧条还要糟糕，BSC/LEH/MER/AIG。。。。
: 胡祈胡想
: 美国上世纪三十年代的经济大萧条令人心寒啊？
: 但是本次美国经济危机大有可能比上世纪三十年代大萧条还要糟糕啦？
: 房价从顶峰下跌百分之三十到四十，远远大于上世纪大萧条的降幅吧？
: BSC没了，LEH又完了，下一个呢？MER?再下一个呢？AIG?还有呢？没完没了啊？
: 日后的艰难困境长着呢？
: 怎么办？